Autores:
VALE, MARIANA M.; Arias, Paola A. ; Ortega, Geusep ; Cardoso, Manoel ; Oliveira, Beatriz F. A. ; LOYOLA, RAFAEL ; Scarano, Fabio R. . Climate Change and Biodiversity in the Atlantic Forest: Best Climatic Models, Predicted Changes and Impacts, and Adaptation Options. In: M. C. M. Marques; C. E. V. Grelle. (Org.).

Revista:
The Atlantic Forest. History, Biodiversity, Threats and Opportunities of the Mega-diverse Forest

Edição:
Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, 2021, v. , p. 253-267.

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The Atlantic Forest is one of the 36 hotspots for biodiversity conservation worldwide. It is a unique, large biome (more than 3000 km in latitude; 2500 in longitude), marked by high biodiversity, high degree of endemic species and, at the same time, extremely threatened. Approximately 70% of the Brazilian population lives in the area of this biome, which makes the conflict between biodiversity conservation and the sustainability of the human population a relevant issue. This book aims to cover: 1) the historical characterization and geographic variation of the biome; 2) the distribution of the diversity of some relevant taxa; 3) the main threats to biodiversity, and 4) possible opportunities to ensure the biodiversity conservation, and the economic and social sustainability. Also, it is hoped that this book can be useful for those involved in the development of public policies aimed at the conservation of this important global biome.

Autores:
MANES, S. ; Costello, M. J. ; Beckett, H. ; Debnath, A. ; Devenish-Nelson, E. ; Grey, K. ; Jenkins, R. ; Khan, T. M. ; Kiessling, W. ; Krause, C. ; Maharaj, S. S. ; Midgley, G. F. ; Price, J. ; Talukdar, G. ; VALE, M. M

Revista:
BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION

Edição:
Volume 257, May 2021, 109070

DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109070Get rights and content

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Climate change affects life at global scales and across systems but is of special concern in areas that are disproportionately rich in biological diversity and uniqueness. Using a meta-analytical approach, we analysed >8000 risk projections of the projected impact of climate change on 273 areas of exceptional biodiversity, including terrestrial and marine environments. We found that climate change is projected to negatively impact all assessed areas, but endemic species are consistently more adversely impacted. Terrestrial endemics are projected to be 2.7 and 10 times more impacted than non-endemic natives and introduced species respectively, the latter being overall unaffected by climate change. We defined a high risk of extinction as a loss of >80% due to climate change alone. Of endemic species, 34% and 46% in terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and 100% and 84% of island and mountain species were projected to face high extinction risk respectively. A doubling of warming is projected to disproportionately increase extinction risks for endemic and non-endemic native species. Thus, reducing extinction risks requires both adaptation responses in biodiversity rich-spots and enhanced climate change mitigation.

Autores:
VALE, M. M.; LIMA-RIBEIRO, MATHEUS DE S. ; ROCHA, TAINÁ

Revista:
Biodiversity Informatics

Edição:
v. 16, p. 28-38, 2021.

DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.06.442941

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Land-use land-cover (LULC) data are important predictors of species occurrence and biodiversity threat. Although there are LULC datasets available for ecologists under current conditions, there is a lack of such data under historical and future climatic conditions. This hinders, for example, projecting niche and distribution models under global change scenarios at different times. The Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2) is a global terrestrial dataset at 0.25° spatial resolution that provides LULC data from 850 to 2300 for 12 LULC state classes. The dataset, however, is compressed in a file format (NetCDF) that is incompatible with most ecological analysis and intractable for most ecologists. Here we selected and transformed the LUH2 data in order to make it more useful for ecological studies. We provide LULC for every year from 850 to 2100, with data from 2015 on provided under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2 and SSP5). We provide two types of file for each year: separate files with continuous values for each of the 12 LULC state classes, and a single categorical file with all state classes combined. To create the categorical layer, we assigned the state with the highest value in a given pixel among the 12 continuous data. The final dataset provides LULC data for 1251 years that will be of interest for macroecology, ecological niche modeling, global change analysis, and other applications in ecology and conservation. We also provide a description of LUH2 prediction of future LULC change through time.

Autores:
ALEXANDRE F. DINIZ-FILHO, JOSÉ ; SOUZA, KELLY S. ; BINI, LUIS M. ; LOYOLA, RAFAEL ; DOBROVOLSKI, RICARDO ; RODRIGUES, FABRICIO ; LIMA-RIBEIRO, MATHEUS DE S. ; TERRIBILE, LEVI C. ; RANGEL, THIAGO F. ; BIONE, IGOR ; FREITAS, RONIEL ; MACHADO, IBERÊ F. ; ROCHA, TAINÁ ; LORINI, MARIA L. ; VALE, MARIANA M. ; NAVAS, CARLOS A. ; MACIEL, NATAN M. ; VILLALOBOS, FABRICIO ; OLALLA-TARRAGA, MIGUEL A. ; GOUVEIA, SIDNEY

Revista:
ECOGRAPHY

Edição:
31 January 2019

DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.04264

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Despite the widespread use of ecological niche models (ENMs) for predicting the responses of species to climate change, these models do not explicitly incorporate any population-level mechanism. On the other hand, mechanistic models adding population processes (e.g. biotic interactions, dispersal and adaptive potential to abiotic conditions) are much more complex and difficult to parameterize, especially if the goal is to predict range shifts for many species simultaneously. In particular, the adaptive potential (based on genetic adaptations, phenotypic plasticity and behavioral adjustments for physiological responses) of local populations has been a less studied mechanism affecting species’ responses to climatic change so far. Here, we discuss and apply an alternative macroecological framework to evaluate the potential role of evolutionary rescue under climate change based on ENMs. We begin by reviewing eco-evolutionary models that evaluate the maximum sustainable evolutionary rate under a scenario of environmental change, showing how they can be used to understand the impact of temperature change on a Neotropical anuran species, the Schneider’s toad Rhinella diptycha. Then we show how to evaluate spatial patterns of species’ geographic range shift using such models, by estimating evolutionary rates at the trailing edge of species distribution estimated by ENMs and by recalculating the relative amount of total range loss under climate change. We show how different models can reduce the expected range loss predicted for the studied species by potential ecophysiological adaptations in some regions of the trailing edge predicted by ENMs. For general applications, we believe that parameters for large numbers of species and populations can be obtained from macroecological generalizations (e.g. allometric equations and ecogeographical rules), so our framework coupling ENMs with eco-evolutionary models can be applied to achieve a more accurate picture of potential impacts from climate change and other threats to biodiversity.

Autores:
BRAZ, ALAN GERHARDT ; Lorini, Maria Lucia ; VALE, MARIANA MONCASSIM

Revista:
DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Edição:
11 December 2018

DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12872

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Parapatric distributional patterns can arise from abiotic or biotic factors, or from dispersal barriers. Climate change can potentially affect parapatry by changing species’ potential geographic distribution, and thereby widening or shrinking contact zones. Here, we study the effects of climate change on all six species in the genus Callithrix, a group of small-sized Neotropical primates that is distributed parapatrically in eastern Brazil, allegedly due to biotic interactions.

Autores:
Paula Ferreira, Arnout van Soesbergen, Mark Mulligan, Marcos Freitas, Mariana M. Vale

Revista:
Science of the Total Environment

DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.065

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Autores:
PIRES, A. P. F.; LEAL, J. D. S.; PEETERS, E. T. H. M.

Revista:
PLoS ONE 12(4): e0175436

DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0175436

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Climate change and biodiversity loss have been reported as major disturbances in the biosphere which can trigger changes in the structure and functioning of natural ecosystems. Nonetheless, empirical studies demonstrating how both factors interact to affect shifts in aquatic ecosystems are still unexplored. Here, we experimentally test how changes in rainfall distribution and litter diversity affect the occurrence of the algae-dominated condition in tank bromeliad ecosystems. Tank bromeliads are miniature aquatic ecosystems shaped by the rainwater and allochthonous detritus accumulated in the bases of their leaves. Here, we demonstrated that changes in the rainfall distribution were able to reduce the chlorophyll-a concentration in the water of bromeliad tanks affecting significantly the occurrence of algae-dominated conditions. On the other hand, litter diversity did not affect the algae dominance irrespective to the rainfall scenario. We suggest that rainfall changes may compromise important self-reinforcing mechanisms responsible for maintaining high levels of algae on tank bromeliads ecosystems. We summarized these results into a theoretical model which suggests that tank bromeliads may show two different regimes, determined by the bromeliad ability in taking up nutrients from the water and by the total amount of light entering the tank. We concluded that predicted climate changes might promote regime shifts in tropical aquatic ecosystems by shaping their structure and the relative importance of other regulating factors.

Autores:
RIBEIRO, B. R.; SALES, L. P.; DE MARCO, P. JR.; LOYOLA, R.

Revista:
PLoS ONE 11(11): e0165073, 2016

DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0165073

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Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21st century. Species’ response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species’ range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species’ vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species’ ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts.

Autores:
RIBEIRO, B. R.; SALES, L. P.; de MARCO, P. JR.; LOYOLA, R.

Revista:
PLoS ONE 11(11): e0165073. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0165073, 2016

DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0165073

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Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21^stcentury. Species’ response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species’ range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species’ vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species’ ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts.

Autores:
PIRES, A. P. F.; MARINO, N. A. C.; SRIVASTAVA, D. S.; FARJALLA, V.

Revista:
Ecology, v. 97(10), p. 2750-2759, 2016

DOI:
10.1002/ecy.1501

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Changes in the distribution of rainfall and the occurrence of extreme rain events will alter the size and persistence of aquatic ecosystems. Such alterations may affect the structure of local aquatic communities in terms of species composition, and by altering species interactions. In many aquatic ecosystems, leaf litter sustains detrital food webs and could regulate the responses of communities to changes in rainfall. Few empirical studies have focused on how rainfall changes will affect aquatic communities and none have evaluated if basal resource diversity can increase resistance to such rainfall effects. In this study, we used water-holding terrestrial bromeliads, a tropical aquatic ecosystem, to test how predicted rainfall changes and litter diversity may affect community composition and trophic interactions. We used structural equation modeling to investigate the combined effects of rainfall changes and litter diversity on trophic interactions. We demonstrated that changes in rainfall disrupted trophic relationships, even though there were only minor direct effects on species abundance, richness, and community composition. Litter diversity was not able to reduce the impact of changes in rainfall on trophic interactions. We suggest that changes in rainfall can alter the way in which species interact with each other, decreasing the linkages among trophic groups. Such reductions in biotic interactions under climate change will have critical consequences for the functioning of tropical aquatic ecosystems.

Autores:
VALE, M. M.; LORINE, M. L.; CERQUEIRA, R.

Revista:
Oecologia Australis, v. 19(1), p. 63-88, 2015

DOI:
10.4257/oeco.2015.1901.05

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Ongoing climate change and the human role as dominant cause behind it are undeniable and already affecting living systems around the globe. Nonetheless, the likely consequences of climate change to Neotropical biodiversity are still poorly understood. We used species distribution modeling to evaluate the likely effects of climate change to the seven species of wild cats that are endemic to the Neotropics. We gathered (and provide) 424 species occurrence records from museum collections and the literature. We run the analysis on the ModEco software, using four modeling algorithms and projected models into 2050 using data from International Panel on Climate Change’s last Assessment Report, under a business-as-usual emission scenario (RCP 8.5), according to five Global Circulation Models. We used an ensemble-forecasting approach to reach a consensus scenario, including only models with AUC > 0.70 for the present climate dataset. We created ensembles using the majority rule. After this procedure, we ended with two final suitability models per species, one for the present and another for the future. Model performance varied among species and was related to species’ climatic suitability area (the smaller the area, the greater the model performance), and species with the smaller ranges were predicted to lose the highest percentage of their current distribution under climate change. The projections under climate change points to important contraction of climatically suitable areas for all Neotropical felids except for L. geoffoyii. The remaining species show, in average, a 43.5% contraction of suitable areas, with L. jacobitus and L. guigna showing more than 50% contraction. Both are already threatened under IUCN and Leopardus jacobitus, found only in the higher elevations of the Andes, is of special concern because highland species are particularly susceptible to a warming climate.

Autores:
LORINE, M. L.; VALE, M. M.

Revista:
Oecologia Australis, v. 19(1), p. 16-31, 2015

DOI:
10.4257/oeco.2015.1901.02

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The quantification of species-environment relationship represents the core of predictive geographical modeling in ecology and the root of contemporary species distribution modeling. The correlative approaches that link known occurrences of species with environmental variation across landscapes to estimate ecological niches and geographic distributions are generally termed ecological niche modeling (ENM) or species distribution modeling (SDM). The theoretical basis of these models is that each organism is adapted to specific tolerance zones or ‘‘niches’’ which, in a Grinellian sense, can be considered as the set of abiotic requirements in which a species can maintain itself. Here we provided an overview of the publication trends on ENM/SDM, both globally and in Brazil, through a scientometric approach. We also review the most important contributions of Dr. Rui Cerqueira’s pioneer scientific research program on biogeography and distribution modeling in Brazil. The global production in the “ENM/SDM” field showed a growing trend in publication from 1990s on, with peaks on global production output occurring five times from 2005 to 2012. After 2009, more than a hundred articles were published yearly. In Brazil, although the production has also increased in the last decade, especially from 2006 on, the increase did not follow the magnitude of the global trend. Only after 2009 the number of articles published yearly surpassed ten. Cerqueira figures among the top ten authors in Brazil, being the only author to publish on the topic before 2002. Cerqueira has also made few, but quite important contributions to the understanding of biogeographical patterns in the Neotropics. These results highlight the pioneer contribution of Dr. Rui Cerqueira to the fields of species distribution modeling and biogeography in Brazil, which we present and discuss here.