Esse artigo se divide em cinco seções, contando essa introdução e as referências bibliográficas ao final. A próxima seção trata dos temas abordados no projeto, com foco sobre as questões relacionadas ao etanol; na seção seguinte, o foco é o biodiesel. Para os dois tipos de biocombustíveis são considerados a caracterização setorial e o quadro internacional e nacional de produção, consumo e comércio, a dinâmica tecnológica de cada produto, e os potenciais efeitos das mudanças climáticas e de adoção de políticas de baixo carbono sobre os dois mercados. A última subseção para cada biocombustível trata das sínteses das ideais apresentadas ao longo do texto. Ao final, apresentam-se, a título de considerações finais, uma síntese das discussões expostas ao longo do texto para ambos os biocombustíveis.

O artigo propõe e avalia três metodologias para estimar matrizes energéticas nacionais mais desagregadas a partir dos dados da matriz insumo-produto (MIP). Para avaliar os resultados, foram construídas três matrizes insumo-produto híbridas. As análises de correlação e de acuidade dos multiplicadores, índices de ligação setoriais, requerimentos de energia e emissões de CO2 mostraram convergência de resultados nos métodos Base BEN e Base MIP Ajustada. Conclui-se, portanto, que o uso de coeficientes insumo-produto, como ponderadores de expansão do consumo setorial de energia, permite estimar matrizes energéticas consistentes e que são válidas as análises estruturais da economia realizadas com base nelas.

Climate change will exacerbate the vulnerability of places and people around the world in the next decades, especially in less developed regions. In this paper, we investigate future scenarios of population vulnerability to climate change for the next 30 years in 66 regions of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Based upon the Alkire & Foster Index, we integrate simulated and projected dimensions of population vulnerability into a Multidimensional Index, showing how scenarios of temperature change would affect each region’s relative vulnerability in the future. Results suggest that economic and health dimensions are the highest contributors to increases in temperature-related vulnerability, with the poorest and agribusiness regions being the most impacted in decades to come.

As we confront the current environmental crisis, determining the biophysical base (e.g., materials, energy, land, and water) of nations has become paramount. With advanced economies benefiting from the import of resource-intensive primary goods originating from poorer parts of the world, especially emerging nations, these are dilapidating their natural capital. Brazil is one of such emerging economies, whose mining and farming activities, propping up its export-led economic growth, exert great pressure on the environment. In particular, farming has been shown to have one of the world’s greatest environmental impacts, especially as a consequence of land use associated with cattle ranching. Since a nation-wide evaluation of land-use types across the whole sectorial spectrum of the country’s economy is still lacking, we used the most recently available Input–Output Economic Model for Brazil and the Ecological Footprint method to identify those economic sectors with the greatest potential for appropriating portions of the natural world.

Our results show that: (i) the biggest chunk of Brazil’s Ecological Footprint is due to its Carbon Footprint and, in particular, emissions from cattle; (ii) only a few economic sectors exhibit high Ecological Footprint values, chiefly those belonging to livestock farming and energy production based on fossil fuels; (iii) excluding the soybeans and slaughter sectors, export-oriented sectors have below-average Ecological Footprint values; and (iv) the percentage of Brazil’s Ecological Footprint due to household consumption (excluding imports) is three times bigger than that attributable to exports, with sectors belonging to livestock farming contributing the most to such disparity.

These results underscore that the environmental impact of the Brazilian economy can be drastically reduced by tackling the emission-intensive production processes of a few sectors only and disincentivizing the domestic consumption of a narrow range of products, especially with respect to the livestock segment

Brazil has dramatically increased its agricultural area under cultivation, in the process becoming a major food exporter at the cost of natural forests. A new challenge is to meet the food demands of an expanding world population in the face of pessimistic climate change scenarios and the increasing scarcity of land. Can Brazil help meet rising world food demand while conserving its tropical rainforests? To address this question we simulate outcomes using a large dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium model of Brazil to model land use over 20 years in 90 zones and 14 agricultural sectors. The model features a land-use change module based on a transition matrix obtained from satellite imagery. We analyze two scenarios of deforestation reduction, both linked to actual policy proposals. Model results indicate several mechanisms that allow food output to increase without expanding land supply. In particular, we stress the role of Brazil’s vast, low-yield pasture area as a source of future cropland. Thus, we find that controlling deforestation leads to rather small decreases in food output—which could be neutralized by tiny exogenous productivity improvements. We conclude that the decrease in deforestation will not significantly compromise Brazilian agricultural supply capacity in the foreseeable future.

Among the options for sustainable exploitation of forests, extraction of a range of non-timber forest products presents low environmental impact. This paper develops a Social Account Matrix (SAM) for the Amazon region which describes the structure of jobs and income creation in those non-timber activities and highlights the linkages with the rest of the economy, as well as the degree of processing of forest products both for local use and exports. SAM-based multipliers are derived to analyse the interconnection between the forest sectors and the rest of the economy. Results show the limitation of those activities in terms of jobs and income creation, although labour multipliers in some primary activities, as well as in their processing industries, were found to be high. Logging and timber related activities were shown to play the most prominent role in the Amazon economy among all the forest activities.

Spanish
Entre las opciones para la explotación sostenible de los bosques, la explotación de una gama de productos no maderables del bosque es una que tiene un bajo impacto ambiental. Este artículo desarrolla una Matriz de Contabilidad Social (MCS) para la región amazónica que describe la estructura de los puestos de trabajo y la generación de ingresos en las actividades no maderables y destaca los vínculos con el resto de la economía, así como el grado de transformación de los productos forestales, tanto para uso local como para la exportación. Se obtuvieron multiplicadores basados en la MCS para analizar la interconexión entre los sectores forestales y el resto de la economía. Los resultados muestran lo limitado de esas actividades en términos de empleo y generación de ingresos, a pesar de que se encontraron valores elevados para los multiplicadores de mano de obra en algunas de las actividades primarias, así como en sus industrias de transformación. Entre todas las actividades forestales, se observó que el aprovechamiento de la madera y actividades relacionadas desempeñan el papel predominante en la economía amazónica.

French
Parmi les options d’exploitation durable des forêts, l’extraction d’un éventail de produits forestiers autres que le bois présente un impact environnemental faible. Ce papier développe une matrice de compte social (SAM) pour la région amazonienne, qui décrit la structure des emplois et de la création de revenus dans les activités autres que le bois, et souligne leurs liens avec le reste de l’économie, ainsi que le degré de traitement des produits forestiers pour l’usage local et pour les exportations. Des multiplicateurs basés sur la SAM sont dérivés pour analyser les liens réciproques entre les secteurs forestiers et le reste de l’économie. Les résultats exposent les limitations de ces activités en termes d’emploi et de création de revenus, bien que les multiplicateurs de travail dans certaines activités primaires, ainsi que dans les industries de traitement étaient élevés. La coupe du bois et les activités liées au bois se retrouvaient jouant le rôle le plus prééminent dans l’économie de l’Amazonie, parmi les activités forestières.

The city of São Paulo, home to 11 million people, suffers constantly the effects of flooding caused by extreme precipitation. Localized floods occur every summer in various parts of the city. Besides the losses and inconvenience felt by the residents, floods produce damages that cross the city boundaries, affecting income and output in the metropolitan area as well as in other parts of the state and the country. The objective of this study is to evaluate the economic impacts of floods in the city of São Paulo through the use of a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) model integrated to GIS information related to the location of points of floods and the firms within their influence. It is estimated that floods contributed to reduce city growth and residents’ welfare, as well as hampering local competitiveness in both domestic and international markets. An intra-city total impact-damage ratio of 2.2 and an economy-wide total impact-damage ratio of 5.0 were found.

Este artigo apresenta uma extensão do trabalho de Haddad e Teixeira (2014) em que se avaliaram os impactos econômicos dos alagamentos em São Paulo considerando-se um conceito mais amplo de prejuízo, que inclui não só as perdas diretas tradicionais relacionadas à interrupção da produção, mas também os custos indiretos avaliados por meio das ligações das cadeias produtivas em que a cidade se insere. Os resultados globais foram decompostos possibilitando a identificação das perdas potenciais por ponto de alagamento, ampliando o escopo de análise. Com esse novo conjunto de informações, foram identificados os hotspots econômicos, ou seja, os pontos que causaram as maiores perdas econômicas potenciais à cidade de São Paulo e ao Brasil. Ademais, a técnica de decomposição utilizada proporciona uma ferramenta auxiliar para análise de custo-benefício de projetos locais para redução de alagamentos.

The discoveries of oil and gas in the so-called “Pre-Salt layer” have triggered a lot of discussions about their economic effect. In this paper we discuss in detail a less discussed dimension: the impact of Pre-Salt layer in the structure of the Brazilian economy, especially the composition of the industry and exports. Similar consequences in the country of “Dutch disease” and “deindustrialization” due to revenues from oil exports are evaluated. The methodology used is a dynamic global general equilibrium model, with specific features for the treatment of the issues raised.

This study evaluated the life cycle GHG emissions of a renewable jet fuel produced from sugar cane in Brazil under a consequential approach. The analysis included the direct and indirect emissions associated with sugar cane production and fuel processing, distribution, and use for a projected 2020 scenario. The CA-GREET model was used as the basic analytical tool, while Land Use Change (LUC) emissions were estimated employing the GTAP-BIO-ADV and AEZ-EF models. Feedstock production and LUC impacts were evaluated as the main sources of emissions, respectively estimated as 14.6 and 12 g CO2eq/MJ of biofuel in the base case. However, the renewable jet fuel would strongly benefit from bagasse and trash-based cogeneration, which would enable a net life cycle emission of 8.5 g CO2eq/MJ of biofuel in the base case, whereas Monte Carlo results indicate 21 ± 11 g CO2eq/MJ. Besides the major influence of the electricity surplus, the sensitivity analysis showed that the cropland–pasture yield elasticity and the choice of the land use factor employed to sugar cane are relevant parameters for the biofuel life cycle performance. Uncertainties about these estimations exist, especially because the study relies on projected performances, and further studies about LUC are also needed to improve the knowledge about their contribution to the renewable jet fuel life cycle.