To reduce uncertainty regarding the contribution of continental shelf areas in low latitude regions to the air-sea CO2 exchange, more data are required to understand the carbon turnover in these regions and cover gaps in coverage. For the first time, inorganic carbon and alkalinity were measured along a cross-shelf transect off the coast of Maranhão (North Brazil) in 9 cruises spawning from April 2013 to September 2014. On the last 4 transects, dissolved organic matter and nutrients were also measured. The highest inorganic and organic carbon concentrations are observed close to land. As a result of low productivity and significant remineralization, heterotrophy dominates along the transect throughout the year. Although the temporal variability is significantly reduced at the offshore station with carbon concentrations decreasing seaward, the fugacity of CO2 (fCO2) at this station remains significantly higher, especially during the wet season, than the open ocean values measured routinely by a merchant ship further west. Overall, the continental shelf is a weak source of CO2 to the atmosphere throughout the year with an annual mean flux of 1.81±0.84 mmol m−2 d−1. The highest magnitudes of fCO2 are observed during the wet season when the winds are the weakest. As a result, the CO2 flux does not show a clear seasonal pattern. Further offshore, fCO2 is significantly lower than on the continental shelf. However, the oceanic CO2 flux, with an annual mean of 2.32±1.09 mmol m−2 d−1, is not statistically different from the CO2 flux at the continental shelf because the wind is stronger in the open ocean.

From the mid twentieth century onwards, the developed and many developing countries experienced rapid changes in their agricultural activity. This was characterized by intensification, supported by mechanization and the use of synthetic fertilizers, chemicals for pest control, together with concentration and specialization, which resulted in enterprises of larger scale focusing on specific products motivated principally by a global market of commodities.

Land-use change (LUC) in Brazil has important implications on global climate change, ecosystem services and biodiversity, and agricultural expansion plays a critical role in this process. Concerns over these issues have led to the need for estimating the magnitude and impacts associated with that, which are increasingly reported in the environmental assessment of products. Currently, there is an extensive debate on which methods are more appropriate for estimating LUC and related emissions and regionalized estimates are lacking for Brazil, which is a world leader in agricultural production (e.g. food, fibres and bioenergy). We developed a method for estimating scenarios of past 20-year LUC and derived CO₂ emission rates associated with 64 crops, pasture and forestry in Brazil as whole and in each of its 27 states, based on time-series statistics and in accordance with most used carbon-footprinting standards. The scenarios adopted provide a range between minimum and maximum rates of CO₂ emissions from LUC according to different possibilities of land-use transitions, which can have large impacts in the results. Specificities of Brazil, like multiple cropping and highly heterogeneous carbon stocks, are also addressed. The highest CO₂emission rates are observed in the Amazon biome states and crops with the highest rates are those that have undergone expansion in this region. Some states and crops showing large agricultural areas have low emissions associated, especially in southern and eastern Brazil. Native carbon stocks and time of agricultural expansion are the most decisive factors to the patterns of emissions. Some implications on LUC estimation methods and standards and on agri-environmental policies are discussed.

Estimates of carbon-stock changes in forest ecosystems require information on dead wood decomposition rates. In the Amazon, the lack of data is dramatic due to the small number of studies and the large range of forest types. The aim of this study was to estimate the decomposition rate of coarse woody debris (CWD) in two oligotrophic undisturbed forest formations of the northern Brazilian Amazon: seasonally flooded and unflooded. We analyzed 20 arboreal individuals (11 tree species and 3 palm species) with distinct wood-density categories. The mean annual decomposition rate of all samples independent of forest formation ranged from 0.044 to 0.963 yr⁻¹, considering two observation periods (12 and 24 months). The highest rate (0.732 ± 0.206 [SD] yr⁻¹) was observed for the lowest wood-density class of palms, whereas the lowest rate (0.119 ± 0.101 yr⁻¹) was determined for trees with high wood density. In terms of forest formation, the rates values differ when weighted by the wood-density classes, indicating that unflooded forest (0.181 ± 0.083 [SE] yr⁻¹; mean decay time 11–30 years) has a decomposition rate ∼19% higher than the seasonally flooded formations (0.152 ± 0.072 yr⁻¹; 13–37 years). This result reflects the dominance of species with high wood density in seasonally flooded formations. In both formations 95% of the dead wood is expected to disappear within 30–40 years. Based on our results, we conclude that the CWD decomposition in the studied area is slower in forests on nutrient-poor seasonally flooded soils, where structure and species composition result in ∼40% of the aboveground biomass being in tree species with high wood density. Thus, it is estimated that CWD in seasonally flooded forest formations has longer residence time and slower carbon release by decomposition (respiration) than in unflooded forests. These results improve our ability to model stocks and fluxes of carbon derived from decomposition of dead wood in undisturbed oligotrophic forests in the Rio Negro-Rio Branco Basin, northern Brazilian Amazon.

Climate change and biodiversity loss have been reported as major disturbances in the biosphere which can trigger changes in the structure and functioning of natural ecosystems. Nonetheless, empirical studies demonstrating how both factors interact to affect shifts in aquatic ecosystems are still unexplored. Here, we experimentally test how changes in rainfall distribution and litter diversity affect the occurrence of the algae-dominated condition in tank bromeliad ecosystems. Tank bromeliads are miniature aquatic ecosystems shaped by the rainwater and allochthonous detritus accumulated in the bases of their leaves. Here, we demonstrated that changes in the rainfall distribution were able to reduce the chlorophyll-a concentration in the water of bromeliad tanks affecting significantly the occurrence of algae-dominated conditions. On the other hand, litter diversity did not affect the algae dominance irrespective to the rainfall scenario. We suggest that rainfall changes may compromise important self-reinforcing mechanisms responsible for maintaining high levels of algae on tank bromeliads ecosystems. We summarized these results into a theoretical model which suggests that tank bromeliads may show two different regimes, determined by the bromeliad ability in taking up nutrients from the water and by the total amount of light entering the tank. We concluded that predicted climate changes might promote regime shifts in tropical aquatic ecosystems by shaping their structure and the relative importance of other regulating factors.

Observational data and numerical modeling were used to investigate oceanic current wakes surrounding Fernando de Noronha Island (3°51′S–32°25′W) and Rocas Atoll (3°52′S–33°49′W). These two Brazilian systems are located in the western tropical Atlantic region and are under the influence of the westward flow of the central South Equatorial Current (cSEC). In order to highlight the effects of wakes on ocean dynamics, two different numerical simulations were performed, using the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS): the first one including Fernando de Noronha Island and Rocas Atoll (Scenario I) and the second one with artificial removal of the island and atoll (Scenario NI). Simulations are validated through the Scenario I that well reproduces the wakes that give rise to the development of eddies downstream of FN and AR. These mesoscale structures have a strong influence on the thermodynamic properties surrounding the Island and the Atoll. Scenario NI allows evidence of the presence of an Island and Atoll shoaling mixed layer throughout the year, primarily on the western side of the Island and the Atoll. Mixing at the base of the mixed layer, inducing a subsurface cooling, is also enhanced in the downstream portion of the Island and Atoll, particularly when the cSEC is strengthened. These simulations support the “island mass effect” on the high productivity of subsurface waters generally observed on the western side of these islands.

Multiple biotic and abiotic drivers regulate the balance between CO2 assimilation and release in surface waters. In the present study, we compared in situ measurements of plankton carbon metabolism (primary production and respiration) to calculated air–water CO2 fluxes (based on abiotic parameters) during 1 year (2008) in a hypereutrophic tropical estuary (Recife Harbor, NE Brazil – 08°03′S, 34°52′W) to test the hypothesis that high productivity leads to a net CO2 flux from the atmosphere. The calculated CO2 fluxes through the air–water interface (FCO2) were negative throughout the year (FCO2: –2 to –9 mmol C·m−2·day−1), indicating that Recife Harbor is an atmospheric CO2 sink. Respiration rates of the plankton community ranged from 2 to 45 mmol C·m−2·hr−1. Gross primary production ranged from 0.2 to 281 mmol C·m−2·hr−1, exceeding respiration during most of the year (net autotrophy), except for the end of the wet season, when the water column was net heterotrophic. The present results highlight the importance of including eutrophic tropical shallow estuaries in global air–water CO2 flux studies, in order to better understand their role as a sink of atmospheric CO2.

As a contribution to an Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) project in Distrito Federal, Brazil, we address several aspects for a credible downscaling of near-surface air temperature and precipitation using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM4.2). For instance, we apply a detailed screening of predictors, consider the end user needs in the validation procedure, assess the added value of the downscaling model and include several sources of uncertainties until the downscaling step. Results suggest that the interpolation of large-scale predictors to the target site is a reasonable alternative to predictors derived from grid-boxes. The validation metrics, measures (i.e. bias, root-mean-square error, and Pearson’s correlation coefficient) and quantile–quantile plots reveal that model tends to underestimate near-surface temperature and precipitation; whereas extreme values are subject of considerable uncertainties. Single-site projections at daily scale are derived from 27 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) forced by Representative Concentration Pathways (i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) scenarios. The downscaling model adds substantial value in terms of amplitude of variability when compared to the host coarse-resolution projections. Its performance is higher than a quantile-mapping bias correction technique, particularly in reproducing observed trends. In spite of the elevated level of uncertainties in the magnitude of change, most of the downscaled projections agree on positive changes in near-surface temperature and precipitation for the period of 2036–2055 when compared to the reference period (i.e. 1986–2005). The massive amount of downscaled projections is of limited application in hydrological studies and, therefore, we suggest a summarized group of projections which are representative to the central tendency and spread of the ensemble.

The objective of this work was to develop and evaluate a method for estimating corn yield using a minimum number of parameters and limited information about crop management. The proposed method estimates potential and attainable yields based on the technological level of the production systems and on relatively simple agrometeorological models. Corn yield was estimated for the crop seasons from 2000/2001 to 2007/2008, considering several locations and regions in Brazil, and was compared with the actual yield data from official surveys. There was a high correlation between the estimated and observed yield (0.76≤R²<0.92; p<0.01), with model efficiency (E1’) ranging from 0.45 to 0.73; mean relative error (MRE) between -0.9 and 2.4%; and mean absolute error (MAE) of less than 70 kg ha^-1, depending on the technological level adopted. Based on these results, the proposed yield model can be recommended to forecast yields all over the country, contributing to make this process more precise and accurate.

This study investigates atmospheric blocking over eastern South America in austral summer for the period of 1979–2014. The results show that blocking over this area is a consequence of propagating Rossby waves that grow to large amplitudes and eventually break anticyclonically over subtropical South America (SSA). The SSA blocking can prevent the establishment of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ). As such, years with more blocking days coincide with years with fewer SACZ days and reduced precipitation. Convection mainly over the Indian Ocean associated with Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) phases 1 and 2 can trigger the wave train that leads to SSA blocking whereas convection over the western/central Pacific associated with phases 6 and 7 is more likely to lead to SACZ events. It is found that the MJO is a key source of long-term variability in SSA blocking frequency. The wave packets associated with SSA blocking and SACZ episodes differ not only in their origin but also in their phase and refraction pattern. The tropopause-based methodology used here is proven to reliably identify events that lead to extremes of surface temperature and precipitation over SSA. Up to 80% of warm surface air temperature extremes occur simultaneously with SSA blocking events. The frequency of SSA blocking days is highly anticorrelated with the rainfall over southeast Brazil. The worst droughts in this area, during the summers of 1984, 2001, and 2014, are linked to record high numbers of SSA blocking days. The persistence of these events is also important in generating the extreme impacts.

The inoculation of cereal crops with plant growth-promoting bacteria (PGPB) is a potential strategy to improve fertilizer-N acquisition by crops in soils with low capacity to supply N. A study was conducted to assess the impact of three inoculants on grain yield, protein content, and urea-¹⁵ N recovery in maize (Zea mays L.) under Cerrado soil and climate conditions.

The accurate representation of the impacts of natural and anthropogenic aerosols in the climate system presents a challenge in General Circulation Models. This paper analyzes the performance of the aerosol component of two Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCM): the Europe Centre Hamburg Model – Hamburg Aerosol Model (ECHAM-HAM), and the Community Atmosphere Model – Modal Aerosol Model (CAM5-MAM3) and their comparison with aerosol observations. We analyzed the spatial distribution of aerosols over Brazil represented in terms of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulated by these models. The model results are compared to measurements from Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) ground station, and satellite observations provided by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). While both the models provide AODs at 550 nm, only HAM provides the Angström exponent that is compared with AERONET measurements. The comparison between the model simulations and the satellite observations of AOD show that the models can reproduce the spatial and temporal distributions, however models underestimate AOD for the four cities and for almost every South American continent during all seasons. During the dry season, characterized by intense biomass burning, CAM5-MAM3 shows inconsistent, but comparatively better results that ECHAM-HAM, with negative biases over Northern and Northeastern regions of Brazil. The Angström parameter is reasonably reproduced by ECHAM-HAM, except for Cuiabá, indicating that the particle size distribution is correctly represented in most cities.