Autores:
GUEDES, G. R.; SIMAO, A. B.; DIAS, C. A.; BRAGA, E. O.

Revista:
Cadernos de Saúde Pública (Online), v. 31, p. 1257-1268, 2015

DOI:
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0102-311X00063514

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A forte relação das pessoas com o Rio Doce, bem como suas enchentes regulares, representam fator contínuo de exposição ao risco de doenças hídricas. Dada sua relevância epidemiológica, este estudo analisa a associação entre percepção de contaminação e uso do rio, bem como os mecanismos heurísticos empregados na formação da percepção de risco. Utilizou-se um modelo probit ordenado com variável instrumental e análise de redes temáticas aplicados a uma base de dados primária de 352 domicílios, representativa dos moradores de Tumiritinga, Minas Gerais, Brasil, para o ano de 2012. Os resultados indicam que embora a maioria (92,6%) dos moradores de Tumiritinga perceba o risco de contrair algum tipo de doença quando nada no Rio Doce, somente 11,4% informam não entrar na água. A análise de conteúdo sugere que esse paradoxo advém da falta de compreensão populacional sobre os mecanismos de transmissão de doenças hídricas, criando viés otimista sobre as chances de contaminação. Campanhas para promoção de comportamento preventivo devem, portanto, enfatizar as formas de contrair doenças hídricas na região.

Autores:
BARBIERI, A. F.; GUEDES, G. R.; NORONHA, K. V. M. S.; QUEIROZ, B. L.; DOMINGUES, E.; RIGOTTI, J. I. R.; MOTTA, G. P.; FERES, F. L. C.; CORTEZZI, F. M.; CONFALONIERI, U.; SOUZA, K.

Revista:
Revista Brasileira de Estudos de População - REBEP, v. 32(3), p. 461-488, 2015.

DOI:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0102-3098201500000028

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Climate change will exacerbate the vulnerability of places and people around the world in the next decades, especially in less developed regions. In this paper, we investigate future scenarios of population vulnerability to climate change for the next 30 years in 66 regions of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Based upon the Alkire & Foster Index, we integrate simulated and projected dimensions of population vulnerability into a Multidimensional Index, showing how scenarios of temperature change would affect each region’s relative vulnerability in the future. Results suggest that economic and health dimensions are the highest contributors to increases in temperature-related vulnerability, with the poorest and agribusiness regions being the most impacted in decades to come.

Autores:
PIZZITUTTI, F.; PAN, W. ; BARBIERI, A. F.; MIRANDA, J.; FEINGOLD, B.; GUEDES, G. R.; ALARCON-VALENZUELA, J.; MENA, C.

Revista:
Malaria Journal (Online) , v. 14, p. 514-533, 2015

DOI:
DOI: 10.1186/s12936-015-1030-7

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Background
The Amazon environment has been exposed in the last decades to radical changes that have been accompanied by a remarkable rise of both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria. The malaria transmission process is highly influenced by factors such as spatial and temporal heterogeneities of the environment and individual-based characteristics of mosquitoes and humans populations. All these determinant factors can be simulated effectively trough agent-based models.

Methods
This paper presents a validated agent-based model of local-scale malaria transmission. The model reproduces the environment of a typical riverine village in the northern Peruvian Amazon, where the malaria transmission is highly seasonal and apparently associated with flooding of large areas caused by the neighbouring river. Agents representing humans, mosquitoes and the two species of Plasmodium (P. falciparum and P. vivax) are simulated in a spatially explicit representation of the environment around the village. The model environment includes: climate, people houses positions and elevation. A representation of changes in the mosquito breeding areas extension caused by the river flooding is also included in the simulation environment.

Results
A calibration process was carried out to reproduce the variations of the malaria monthly incidence over a period of 3 years. The calibrated model is also able to reproduce the spatial heterogeneities of local scale malaria transmission. A “what if” eradication strategy scenario is proposed: if the mosquito breeding sites are eliminated through mosquito larva habitat management in a buffer area extended at least 200 m around the village, the malaria transmission is eradicated from the village.

Conclusions
The use of agent-based models can reproduce effectively the spatiotemporal variations of the malaria transmission in a low endemicity environment dominated by river floodings like in the Amazon.

Autores:
BARBIERI, A. F.; GUEDES, G. R.; NORONHA, K. V. M. S.; QUEIROZ, B. L.; DOMINGUES, E.; RIGOTTI, J. I. R.; MOTTA, G. P.; FERES, F. L. C.; CORTEZZI, F. M.; CONFALONIERI, U.; SOUZA, K.

Revista:
Revista Brasileira de Estudos de População? REBEP, v. 32, p. 461-488, 2015.

DOI:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0102-3098201500000028.

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Climate change will exacerbate the vulnerability of places and people around the world in the next decades, especially in less developed regions. In this paper, we investigate future scenarios of population vulnerability to climate change for the next 30 years in 66 regions of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Based upon the Alkire & Foster Index, we integrate simulated and projected dimensions of population vulnerability into a Multidimensional Index, showing how scenarios of temperature change would affect each region’s relative vulnerability in the future. Results suggest that economic and health dimensions are the highest contributors to increases in temperature-related vulnerability, with the poorest and agribusiness regions being the most impacted in decades to come.

Autores:
GUEDES, G. R.; NAWROTZKI, R.; CARMO, R. L.

Revista:
Notas de Población (Impresa), v. 41 (99), p. 133-175, 2014

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